Qualifying GroupsHere's the latest simulation for the UEFA part of the 2026 World Cup qualifying.In Group A Germany still wins the group the most times, but it's percentage is down a whopping 20% following their loss to Slovakia, while the latter's percentage to win the group has now doubled.In Group B Switzerland's chances to qualify directly has increased significantly with Sweden's loss away to Kosovo.In Group C both Denmark and
Here's a simulation of the 2026 World Cup Qualifying CONCACAF Third Round. In Group A, Panama is still favored to qualify for the finals, but their chances have dropped given their results to date, with El Salvador and Surinam's chances having increased, the latter most significantly. In Group B Jamaica's chances have increased quite a bit, and Curaçao's position in second place has strengthened. In Group C Costa Rica's chances
Here's the simulations for the 2026 World Cup Qualifying for CAF. With just two match windows left only Morocco and Tunisia have qualified, so there's a lot to play for. For Cape Verde Islands fans there's certainly a lot of nail-biting left to do, but it looks like this time will be their best chance ever, having been close before.Group A
Here's a sneak preview of what I expect the ranking will look like that will be published on Thursday. As always expect some small adjustments here and there from matches included/excluded.The big changes are of course that Argentina has dropped to third place, and Spain is the new leader. A little bit lower down Brazil has also lost some points, and with them having finished their qualifiers we may see
A belated Happy New Year to everyone. So as avid readers of this blog will know, I have been working on simulating tournaments or parts of them in the past few weeks and I'm very close to publishing this. I ran several 10000 iteration simulations given Ed's hints he gave on this page: http://www.football-rankings.info/2020/12/simulation-of-scheduled-football-matches.html over the weekend and the results are interesting. One thing that wasn't mentioned in the calculations but was
So hereby posting simulations for the UEFA Nations League quarter finals and subsequent finals tournament that will be hosted by the winner of the Italy v Germany match-up.Note that these are based on software, not on opinion!Quarter Final LosersCroatia 67.20%Denmark 65.58%Netherlands 61.18%Germany 54.37%Italy 45.63%Spain 38.82%Portugal 34.42%France 32.80%Semi FinalistFrance 67.20%Portugal 65.58%Spain 61.18%Italy 54.37%Germany
Probably the most interesting simulation for the qualifying for the 2026 World Cup is the CONMEBOL situation at the moment. So given that 60 of the 30 matches have been played so far, who is likely to qualify outright in one of the top 6 positions and which country is most likely to end up playing in the Intercontinental qualifying? Well, let's answer that straight away. With 10000 simulations, these
So what can we expect for the remainder of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers as they stand now (see also the separate detailed post specifically for CONMEBOL).AFCFor each country I show the likelihood to qualify directly, to qualify for the fourth round, and not to qualify.Group AIran 98.92% 1.08% 0.00%Uzbekistan
Hi everyone, below is the expected ranking which includes results of matches already played since the last ranking was posted on 19 December 2024 until now, and predictions for matches to be played from today 17 March.Expected results to follow later today or tomorrow!Pos Country Points +/- +/- 1 Argentina
Hi all, so who saw that all coming? Lots of interesting results. So what does it mean?Quarter FinalsQuarter Final LosersFrance 78.00%Italy 73.89%Netherlands 63.47%Portugal 58.81%Denmark 41.19%Spain 36.53%Germany 26.11%Croatia 22.00%Semi FinalistCroatia 78.00%Germany 73.89%Spain 63.47%Denmark 58.81%Portugal 41.19%Netherlands 36.53%Italy 26.11%France 22.00%3rd/4th Place PlayoffCroatia 48.20%Denmark 35.18%Germany 34.96%Spain 24.65%Portugal 18.31%Netherlands
