Here’s the simulations for the 2026 World Cup Qualifying for CAF.
Group A
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
Egypt 94.43% 5.56% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Burkina Faso 5.53% 82.59% 10.57% 1.20% 0.11% 0.00%
Sierra Leone 0.04% 10.21% 54.05% 26.36% 9.22% 0.12%
Guinea-Bissau 0.00% 1.02% 25.13% 44.11% 28.49% 1.25%
Ethiopia 0.00% 0.62% 10.21% 27.91% 59.52% 1.74%
Djibouti 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.42% 2.66% 96.89%
Group B
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
Senegal 62.53% 32.61% 4.83% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
Democratic Rep of Congo 33.77% 50.90% 15.04% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00%
Sudan 3.70% 16.36% 74.98% 4.89% 0.07% 0.00%
Togo 0.00% 0.13% 4.45% 58.70% 25.98% 10.74%
Mauritania 0.00% 0.00% 0.64% 25.11% 45.13% 29.12%
South Sudan 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 10.98% 28.82% 60.14%
Group C
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
South Africa 87.60% 10.39% 1.65% 0.31% 0.05% 0.00%
Nigeria 8.58% 47.06% 28.52% 10.59% 4.09% 1.16%
Benin 2.58% 29.11% 35.10% 18.95% 9.97% 4.29%
Rwanda 0.99% 9.11% 18.81% 33.47% 26.58% 11.04%
Lesotho 0.18% 2.59% 7.57% 17.98% 33.25% 38.43%
Zimbabwe 0.07% 1.74% 8.35% 18.70% 26.06% 45.08%
Group D
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
Cameroon 52.50% 41.02% 5.81% 0.67% 0.00% 0.00%
Cape Verde Islands 45.90% 44.69% 8.00% 1.40% 0.01% 0.00%
Angola 0.77% 7.25% 45.99% 40.79% 4.63% 0.57%
Libya 0.83% 6.94% 38.31% 47.01% 6.06% 0.85%
Mauritius 0.00% 0.10% 1.63% 8.12% 68.15% 22.00%
Eswatini 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 2.01% 21.15% 76.58%
Group E
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth
Morocco 99.96% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Tanzania 0.02% 59.79% 24.28% 12.13% 3.78%
Zambia 0.00% 16.45% 32.10% 33.59% 17.86%
Niger 0.00% 15.34% 27.93% 30.89% 25.84%
Congo 0.02% 8.38% 15.69% 23.39% 52.52%
Group F
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
Côte d’Ivoire 78.93% 20.78% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Gabon 20.96% 75.89% 3.07% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00%
Burundi 0.11% 2.93% 54.21% 31.54% 11.21% 0.00%
Kenya 0.00% 0.30% 30.99% 43.23% 25.15% 0.33%
Gambia 0.00% 0.10% 11.44% 24.98% 61.35% 2.13%
Seychelles 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 2.29% 97.54%
Group G
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
Algeria 93.46% 5.80% 0.65% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
Mozambique 4.90% 60.09% 21.64% 10.27% 3.10% 0.00%
Uganda 1.27% 20.24% 38.72% 26.40% 13.32% 0.05%
Guinea 0.21% 8.77% 23.33% 37.92% 29.51% 0.26%
Botswana 0.16% 5.10% 15.66% 25.28% 53.71% 0.09%
Somalia 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 0.35% 99.60%
Group H
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
Tunisia 90.60% 8.82% 0.57% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Equatorial Guinea 9.10% 75.34% 13.61% 1.73% 0.22% 0.00%
Namibia 0.30% 12.30% 59.70% 21.51% 6.18% 0.01%
Malawi 0.00% 2.26% 16.46% 43.08% 37.38% 0.82%
Liberia 0.00% 1.28% 9.65% 33.57% 55.14% 0.36%
São Tomé and Príncipe 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.10% 1.08% 98.81%
Group I
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Sixth
Ghana 80.03% 14.99% 4.37% 0.61% 0.00% 0.00%
Mali 10.65% 38.99% 30.76% 18.17% 1.43% 0.00%
Comoros 7.33% 26.66% 32.39% 29.53% 4.09% 0.00%
Madagascar 1.99% 18.95% 30.11% 40.94% 8.00% 0.01%
Central African Republic 0.00% 0.41% 2.37% 10.74% 83.05% 3.43%
Chad 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 3.43% 96.56%
So that would mean that Egypt, Senegal, South Africa, Cameroon, Morocco, Côte d’Ivoire, Algeria, Tunisia and Ghana should qualify for the 2026 World Cup outright, and that the best 4 from Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Cape Verde Islands, Tanzania, Gabon, Mozambique, Equatorial Guinea and Mali will qualify for the second round where one of those teams will qualify for the Intercontinental playoffs.
